Predicting how we'll feel in the future can be challenging. Here’s why.
Now that the election is over, researchers who study emotions want us to understand one thing: Whatever comes next, it likely won’t be as bad or as good as we might imagine.
To understand why this is true, we need to look at something called emotional forecasting. Emotional forecasting is a term for predicting how we’ll feel in the future, and people aren’t very good at it. Here’s why.
First, we often focus too much on a single event or factor and fail to account for all the other influences in our lives that will shape our emotions. For example, people unhappy with the results may only picture upsetting news in the weeks and months ahead, but they may not consider upcoming moments with friends and family, exciting wins by their favorite teams, or the simple pleasures of reading a good book, enjoying a nice meal, and listening to music.
Second, we tend to overestimate the intensity and duration of our future feelings. We think a breakup will leave us heartbroken for a long time, but it usually doesn’t. When our emotions swing to extreme highs or lows, they rarely stay there for very long. Like other natural systems, our brain seeks balance, which means it softens intense feelings and brings us back to a more neutral state.
Third, we often underestimate our emotional resilience and the power of our mental immune system. Most people are surprisingly good at finding positives and making the best out of a difficult situation. While we can’t change what’s already happened, we can change how we feel about it.
In the highly debated 2000 presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore, many people thought the Supreme Court’s decision on who won would have a huge impact on their happiness or disappointment the next day. In reality, researchers found that the Court’s ruling had a much smaller emotional impact than people had expected (Wilson, Meyers, and Gilbert, 2003).
Because of all these reasons, what happens next probably won’t be as bad or as good as you expect. As the British like to say, keep calm and carry on.